Calm Down, Mr. Chávez
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“Hugo Chávez’s Sunday TV and radio program Aló Presidente is not exactly known for its brevity or reassuring tone“, began Michael Shifter’s article, recently published in Foreign Policy magazine. The Venezuelan president’s chief communications vehicle often signals his preferred next steps in the 11th year of his grandiose “Bolivarian” reformation of the nation. So it was cause for concern when Chávez used last Sunday’s program to declare in his usual erratic and combative style, “Let’s not waste a day in our main aim to prepare for war and help the people prepare for war.” The question Mr. Shifter asks, one I dread the answer to, resonates deeply with those concerned about political development in Latin America:
“In a politically unsettled South America, where arms purchases have nearly doubled over the past five years, reaching almost $50 billion last year, could his words be the spark needed to light a conflict?”
The target of Chávez’s threat this time is Colombia, a nation with deep ties to Venezuela; they share a porous and increasingly combustible border and have had a trade relationship worth upwards of $7 billion. Unfortunately, Chávez’s war rhetoric has, like it often does, escalates internationally and hinders domestically.
Today, escalated tensions between the countries are at a whole new level. The bilateral relationship had already taken a sharp turn for the worse, when Chávez decided in August to close the border to Colombian manufactured goods, preferring instead to buy from Brazil. Exports dropped 50 percent the following month. And while the shutdown is not airtight, the clampdown has hurt. Not only has the commercial relationship suffered, but, for the first time, there have been deaths — at least a dozen — on both sides of the border. Massive deportations have sent Colombians back home, and arrests of accused spies have exacerbated the diplomatic spat.
Even before the crisis erupted Sunday, Chávez had ordered some 15,000 troops to the border.
Heated rhetoric aimed at Colombia is a convenient way to divert public attention from Venezuela’s mounting “soft spots” and vulnerabilities under his regime, including uncontrolled criminality, high inflation, decaying infrastructure, water shortages, and electricity rationing.
Ramping up the rhetoric is therefore not only a defensive move; Chávez has also been on the attack against two opposition governors of states bordering Colombia. Any escalation in the conflict would give him a handy pretext to usurp authority from these local elected officials as he has done with others. Since winning a referendum in February that removed term limits, Chávez has been systematically tightening his grip, one which requires we paraphrase the old saying, that in spite of an era where domestic infrastructure and bilateral ties should be strengthened, “absolute power corrupts absolutely“.