Arcadia Foundation

It’s possible, says retired Air Force Maj. Gen. J. Scott Gration, the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, acknowledging that preparations for a critical element of the peace accord, a referendum on independence for southern Sudan, are behind schedule. Many analysts fear that southern Sudan’s secession could result in renewed fighting.

His recommendation? “To redouble our efforts,” adding “we can’t waste another minute.” The situation seems that pressing. If the referendum lapses, there would be little left to compel parties to come together again without putting new compromises on the table, as the situation certainly has evolved.

Options to address the situation so far have included whether or not Secretary Clinton or Ambassador Susan Rice need to take a more “visible role” in order to elevate importance among Americans. Another suggestion has been to put even more senior officials directly in charge of Sudan policy. Gration said he agrees with the analysis of Adm. Dennis C. Blair, the national intelligence director, that of all the countries likely to experience an outbreak of violence in the next five years, “a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in southern Sudan.”

Though the referendum is scheduled for next January, is coming too soon. The referendum will be about allowing the mostly Christian and specific parts of southern Sudan to secede from the Arabic speaking Muslim north. Many analysts have expressed concern that tensions over the vote, and the fate of oil reserves along the potential new border, could trigger a resumption of the two decade war that led to the deaths of 2 million people. The 2005 peace agreement provided the southerners with religious and political autonomy until the referendum, set for 2011.

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