Arcadia Foundation

On April 3, Kazakhs will head to the polls to vote in a presidential election. With major opposition parties boycotting the vote, President Nursultan Nazarbayev — who is overwhelmingly popular, in any case — is virtually assured victory. In February, Nazarbayev called for the early vote — more than a year ahead of schedule — after discarding a plan pushed by his own supporters in Parliament that would have called for a referendum on extending his current term until 2020, bypassing elections entirely.

There was some speculation that the overthrow of the autocratic leaders in Tunisia and Egypt may have influenced Nazarbayev. He has been in power for 21 years, during which time he has presided over massive economic growth, but little in the way of democratic reform.

Joshua Keating from Foreign Policy Magazine discussed these issues, as well as Nazarbayev’s plans for the future, with his advisor for political affairs, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, earlier this week in an interview that asks – is Kazakhstan ready for democracy?

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The following is excerpted from WorldPress.org, written by Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, chief political adviser to Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

On a recent trip to London, I was asked by several experts whether the domino effect that started in the Middle East could affect Kazakhstan and its neighbors. My answer was a simple no for three reasons.

Firstly, there was a popular revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 that did not have repercussions in the four other Central Asian countries. Secondly, the Central Asian countries have been independent for only just under 20 years and are at a different stage of political development from Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. Thirdly, the socio-economic conditions that have given rise to events in the Middle East are different from those in most of Central Asia.

Kyrgyzstan with its 5 million still remains an anomaly in the region because of its concentration of population into a small space, its high levels of poverty and its clan-based politics that create a natural basis for political pluralism.

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Amidst rampant protests over the weekend crying out for freedom in the heart of Egypt, European editorial writers were in full agreement today: time is beginning to run out for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The sun rises in Tunisia without ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and Egypt will function without Mubarak, Hungary’s Magyar Nemzet comments. The daily also takes a closer look at possible successors. “The Muslim Brotherhood would love to take over from the worn-out dictator, but it looks like they aren’t in this game. Should Mubarak have to resign, [Mohamed] ElBaradei is a much more likely successor.” The next Egyptian leader, the paper concludes, would then have to organize democratic elections and use democratic means to weaken the Islamist opposition.

But, as Poland’s Gazeta Wyborcza points out, he who controls the secret services and the army is in power in the Arab world – and in Egypt, that is still Mubarak. Appointing intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president was a smart move to secure the military’s loyalty, the Polish paper writes: “The military can save Mubarak’s neck in return for allowing one of [their own] to take power.”

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A Hamburg hotel’s decision on Monday to hold a controversial conference with an alleged violator of human rights to promote German-Iranian trade prompted protest by New York–based Arcadia Foundation Coalition Partner United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and the German chapter of Stop the Bomb. The “Iran Business Forum,” which was organized by Berlin-based company IPCGmbH, was held at the Marriott Airport Hotel, sparking the two NGOs to call for a boycott of Marriott’s global properties.

Although one appreciates the hotel chain’s desire to remain bipartisan, their willingness to host the event sends a concerning message to their international patrons on the side of the Geneva Convention and fundamental human rights.

The day-long event addressed “investment possibilities in the northwestern provinces of Iran” and the program listed Iran’s ambassador to Germany, Ali Reza Sheikh Attar, as the keynote speaker.

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Irene Khan was the Secretary General of Amnesty International from 2001-2009, and is now a Board member of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue. Below, as excerpted from the Daily Star and referencing Arcadia Foundation President Betty Bigombe, she discusses the invaluable role of women in peacekeeping and the pertinent issue of increasing their presence.

Five months ago, Nepal’s fragile peace was on the brink of disintegrating. After ten years of civil war, a newly elected assembly was tasked with writing a constitution that would keep the peace, but was about to dissolve because the country’s politicians could not agree on the terms of an extension. Women learned bitter lessons from their exclusion from the peace talks and mobilised. Read Full Paper

Amateur filmmakers from around the globe are encouraged to participate in the “1 minute to save the world” competition which closes in two months. The winning entry will be screened at COP16 in Mexico.

The international film competition is open to all ages and is free to enter; budding filmmakers must submit a short film (roughly one minute in length) about climate change. The films will be judged by professionals in the film and environmental industries, including Ben Kott of Google Europe Environmental Operations. The deadline for entries is December 17; entries from filmmakers under 18 in the Best Youth Film category must be submitted by November 12.

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The following post is brought to us by Amsterdam Group.net, Public Relations liaisons to the Arcadia Foundation:

World Cup fever is in full swing – the event shines a geopolitical spotlight on every nation showcased on a daily basis. This time around, the public relations initiatives behind each team seem to be near-tangible. For some of the more oppressive regimes, they may even be downright embarrassing.

Since leaving the country is an impossibility for prison- er, citizens of North Korea, the marketing gurus from the Jong-Il administration have decided to recruit their Chinese friends to make the trip for them and support the Chollima, the nickname of North Korea’s embattled but unbowed soccer team.

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Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s forthcoming visit to Myanmar will have a profound significance on the traditional friendship between the two countries and further boost bilateral cooperative ties, said Chinese ambassador to Myanmar Ye Dabo.

Premier Wen will start a two-day visit to Myanmar on Wednesday, on the ‘occasion‘ of the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Myanmar.

During his visit, Wen will meet Myanmar’s top leader Senior-General Than Shwe, Prime Minister U Thein Sein and other government officials. The two sides will sign a package of documents aimed at strengthening economic and trade cooperation, Ye told Xinhua.

What is truly astonishing is not simply that the meeting is being hailed as near-joyous by both the Chinese and Myanmar diplomatic communities, but that is critically coincides with the Chinese government being pressured to take a firm international stance on the growing North and South Korean dispute. Watching China’s instant condemnation of the Israeli assault on an aid flotilla bound for Gaza, South Koreans must be wondering more than ever if rather than when China will muster a clear response to their own nautical tragedy.

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The recently concluded U.S.–China human rights dialogue presents an opportunity to reflect on the nature of bilateral engagement with China. Just as intended when such dialogues were masterminded, the recent discussion was a quiet, deferential affair with no outcome: an empty gesture, indicative of an American foreign policy strategy in complete disorganization when faced with a partner on such equal footing.

Thirteen years ago, in March 1997, China threatened trade sanctions against countries that continued to cosponsor the annual U.N. Human Rights Commission resolution on China—a public, periodic reminder of the human rights problems extant in the People’s Republic.

This was part of a shift in the Chinese Communist Party’s response to those who criticized its human rights practices after the Tiananmen Massacre of 1989. Previously, governments had addressed rights violations in China with a combined approach of diplomacy and public censure, bilaterally, and multilaterally.

What changed was a cessation of public censure and multilateral action as a quid pro quo for bilateral dialogue. Engagement became the buzzword. The driver of these changes was, of course, Beijing, “with the objective of eliminating multilateral pressure,” observes NGO, Human Rights in China (HRIC).
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Jamestown Foundation correspondent Giorgi Kvelashvili below discusses the de-Sovietization of Georgia, its progress based on the work and recent writings of President Saakashvili. Though the unorthodox relationship with Russia has hindered the mechanisms of autonomy in the post-Soviet state, the boom we  begin to see with respect to police reform, a crucial element to ongoing civil discourse, is cause for hope.

In his April 15, 2010 article in Foreign Policy Magazine, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili wrote about the significant progress his country has made in nation-building and consolidation of a liberal democracy.

In the piece entitled “Failed No Longer,” Saakashvili touched upon almost all aspects of Georgia’s internal development, foreign policy priorities, security issues, international engagement and, of course, the hurdles erected by Russia’s current leadership to obstruct Georgia’s freedom of choice.

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